Recession is a probability now

Journalists do not have a good reputation for predicting recessions. Indeed, they are reputed to have predicted 10 of the last three recessions. A month ago, I wrote that the US had a 33% chance of going into recession next year. Events of the last month have, in my view, increased the chances to over 50%, meaning that a recession is not merely possible but probable. This assessment does not place me among the greatest pessimists: Merrill Lynch rates the chances of a recession at 65%.

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