The "Fed Cover"-Is the Fed always a last resort?

The reactions in the global equity markets due to the Fed's 50 bps rate cut on 18th August and 25bps cut subsequently in late September 18th were appealing to both the investor community as well as to the financial institutions across the world. Investment bankers, credit originators as well as lenders sought relief from the credit squeeze that soon followed the US sub prime debacle. Apart from the rate cut, Central Bankers pumped in huge money ($350 billion) into the system to temporarily tackle and contain the credit crunch thus providing more liquidity to the capital markets. 'Escape from Sub prime' has been one of the most sought after policy of some major lenders, bankers and NBFC's who have substantial exposure to the US subprime market collapse. It is on this context that analysts as well as the policy makers have been much worried about an US economic slowdown, since housing market collapse in the US might lead to a full blown economic downturn due to co-related consumer expenditures. More housing starts and home sales mean more household goods per capita consumption, more people buying household appliances, accessories and others. While less credit in the system spells doom both for the auto industry which thrives on car loans based on easy credits as well as home loan originations that boost the housing and real estate markets.

Investors, anticipating US market trouble have sought shelter elsewhere where they have been parking their money in the Emerging Markets that has been consistently showing remarkable and sustained growth prospect. Though the market shake-off due to the US impact did pull down the emerging equity markets, the strong export driven fast paced developing nations are in-fact in their finest economic tunes since the last Asian Financial crisis in 1997.Quite equally the remarkable economic expansion and financial reforms undertaken by two of the world's most fastest developing nations-China and India boasting 8- 10% on average GDP growth rate. Analysts feel much of the ill-effects due to the subprime crisis could be well cushioned by emerging Asian nations. Consumer demand and expenditure are quite high on account of the newfound wealth in these countries, with the others joining the bandwagon, particularly Russia, Brazil, South Africa, India, China (BRICS), Hong Kong, South Korea and Taipei . The other Asian countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, (ASEAN) nations have been performing well within their macroeconomic parameters.

Analyst might have had a view that the growing Asian economy might buffer any major US downturn, but since US still remains the major importer from these countries, and being the world's largest economy (US$13.5 trillion), followed by Japan (US$4.5 trillion) which has been into a ‘deflationary stagflation’ phase since the late 90's, concerns about export slowdown to these major partners lingering amongst the market participants. A further credit market tightening could jeopardize the corporate mega deals and stall major expansion programs. Fund raising may be hit hard if investor sentiments are towed down with increased risk aversion. Few investors would like to lose money and in-fact is likely to seek better investment returns when the markets are performing well. Foreign investments into equity markets have increased considerably in the emerging markets where good corporate growth and higher returns are attracting global investors pouring liquidity into the stock markets. These factors have created in-effect, asset price rise and stock market bubbles in several countries like China and India. Markets are reacting to any global clues, either from the Fed, major Central Banks or the political changes affecting monetary and economic policies of such countries.